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Why can the tensions in the United States and Iran quickly escalate into a crisis?

Phil Stewart and Michelle Nichols

WASHINGTON / UNITED STATES (Reuters) – Three years ago, when Iranian soldiers captured 10 US sailors once they mistakenly enter Iranian waters, US Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Overseas Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif jumped on the telephone minute and developed the sailor's launch in hours.

Might a comparable crisis be solved so quickly as we speak?

"No," Zarif stated in a current Reuters interview. can it’s prevented? ”

Zarif and present Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have never spoken directly to the position of the United Nations in Iran. 19659002] “Pompeo ensures that every time he speaks about Iran, he offends me,” Zarif stated. "Why should I also answer his phone call?" legislators and overseas coverage specialists.

Throughout this month, the Trump administration ordered the deployment of an aircraft launcher group, bombers and Patriot missiles in the Middle East as regards to intelligence of attainable Iranian preparations for attacks on US troops or pursuits.

"The risk of accident risk seems to be increasing every day," US Senator Angus King, political unbiased Maine, advised Reuters he requested for a direct dialogue between the United States and Iran.

An older European diplomat stated it was essential for the United States and

"I hope some channels are still there for us not to sleep in a situation that no one wants," stated the diplomat, to not mention anonymity. "We have alarming rhetoric."

State Secretary spokesman Morgan Ortagus refused to cope with how the administration would communicate with Iran during the crisis just like the case of 2016, but stated: "When we talk about time, we are sure we have all the means to do so." marketing campaign towards Iran, he stated, the aim is to drive its leaders to the negotiating table.

"If the Iranians are willing to change their ways of behaving as a normal nation," Ortagus stated, "we are ready to talk to them." limiting nuclear assets.

Three years later, high-level diplomatic relations have all been dispersed after the withdrawal of the Trump administration from the nuclear settlement. Iran's oil sanctions and its current move to a terrorist group as a terrorist group.

US army officials level to growing concern about Iran's improvement of accurate missiles and help for armed forces in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and past.

Because there are not any direct discussions, Twitter has develop into a widespread forum for US and Iranian officers engaged in commerce. On Wednesday, an advisor to Hassan Rouhan, President of Iran, hiding in Pompeii, which aroused him by scary Iran with army delegations.

”Your @ SecPompeo won’t deliver warships to our area and name it scary. That is referred to as provocation, ”adviser Hesameddin Ashena, tweeted in English. “It forces Iran to describe its own deterrent, which you call provocation. You see the cycle? "

It was followed by a Trump tweet on Sunday that threatened to" stop "Iran if it struggled to fight, and a long history of bitter insults that Pompeo and Zarif used

Pompeo in February Zarif and the Iranian president" in front of men corrupt religious mafia " The tweet. That same month, another Pompeon department official tweeted: "How do you know @JZarif is lying? His lips are moving."

For its part, Zarif has used the platform of social media to condemn the "pure obsession with Iran" of Pompeo and White House National Security Adviser John Bolton, who called it "the behavior of permanently unsuccessful psychotic stalkers."

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US officials, diplomats, and legislators said they had doubts that Zarif refused to talk about Pompey in a crisis, given the risks Iran is facing with the US Army.

On Tuesday, Pompeo appeared at press conferences with journalists worried about Washington's ability to communicate and negotiate with Iran.

"There are many ways we can get the channel of communication

," Pompeo said.

Diplomats say Oman, Switzerland and Iraq are states that are linked to both countries that can transfer messages.

"It's a bit of Israeli – when they need messages to people, they can get messages to people," said another senior European diplomat.

Representative Michael Waltz – First US Army Green Beret, elected as Congress. he supported diplomatic freezing as a way to force Iran into serious negotiations

"If you do not have diplomatic isolation, you have one-off talks that reduce pressure," said Waltz, who is also a former Pentagon official.

But the transmission of the indirect message may be too cumbersome for a rapidly changing crisis, said Kevin Donegan, a retired admiral, who oversaw the US Navy in the Middle East as commander of the Fifth Navy, when Iran sailed by US sailors.

Such inter-agency relationships take time and do not allow us to expand the rapidly evolving tactical situation, ”stated Donegal, a senior advisor at the Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Studies, who added that he didn’t comment on the present US coverage.

Donegan and Waltz both stated it will be useful to have some type of hotline between US and Iranian troopers, however Donegal and different specialists have been skeptical. Iran would agree with such an association.

Back Channels by way of OMAN, IRAQ… RUSSIA?

3. Might – Wa after Shington was concerned about inquiries displaying that Iran might put together for an attack on the United States or its pursuits – it sent messages to Iran by way of a "third celebration", one US official said, speaking to anonymity.

Marine General Head of Personnel Joseph Dunford also told the congress on 8 May that messages had been sent "to ensure Iran was conscious of the menace and we have been mailed to respond."

Waltz told Dunford statutory listeners that he had sent a message to Qassem Soleiman, an influential commander of the Quds troops of revolutionary guards, and warned him that Iran would be held directly responsible if one of its agents attacked the Americans. 19659002] "Now the message was:" We are not going to hold your credentials accountable "if they attack US residents or troops in the area, he stated." had given Iraq the permission to "let the Iranians know that there was no credible suspicion of assaults on the People in Iraq"

Joseph Votel, a retired four-star general who oversaw the US troops in the Middle East until March, said earlier this year

"Iranians can converse to the Russians," he said, "Russians." government to get the United States out of the Iranian crisis It is hardly reassuring for many current and former US officials.

"It might be a risky oice, stated Wendy Sherman, State Secretary of the Obenda administration.

(Reporting: Phil Stewart and Michelle Nichols; Modifying by Brian Thevenot)

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